Sports Betting – Reality vs. Expectations
Despite efforts by the US government to restrict Internet gambling, millions of dollars are still wagered every day on sporting events, poker, and online casinos. Estimates of the amount of money wagered annually on sporting events vary widely, but all estimators commonly agree that it is in the billions of dollars. Obviously, the Internet is a big part with its worldwide attraction and availability, but there are also legal sportsbooks in states like Nevada and some foreign countries that have legalized betting on sporting events. What makes it difficult to get an accurate estimate is the number of “barbershop bets” in the US and around the world. Illegal bookmakers are estimated to account for nearly 50% of all annual sports betting.
What attracts the public to the “windows” to place bets on sporting events…? Of course, many are drawn to the thrill of having “something on the line” in a game and can almost always see the outcome on a television broadcast. Why does Vegas Sports Books put a TV next to a game on its board? Because they know that there will be more action in a game that is televised than in those that are not. This alone can answer the question of how many sports bettors actually end the season or year with a profit. Playing games just because they are on TV is certainly not going to make a profit for a sports bettor.
The general opinion of bookmakers estimates that less than 10% of all consistent sports bettors will end up with a profit at the end of the year. Most sports bettors don’t have the experience, resources and time to intelligently analyze a sporting event that will give them an edge over the bookmaker. Professional handicappers will spend many hours each day analyzing statistics, reading press releases, studying injury reports, viewing weather forecasts, tracking line movements, analyzing trends, and comparing teams and players.
Adding to the thrill of having something mounted at a sporting event is the lure of those preying on the greedy. Many sports services (vendors) advertise winning percentages that are nothing more than marketing ploys to entice the sports bettor looking to achieve that “big hit.” The reality is that anyone who can consistently predict the outcome of a game (against the spread) more than 60% of the time is in the top 10-15 percent of all handicappers. We’re not talking about the amateur handicapper here, the one who places an occasional bet on his alma mater or an annual bet on the Super Bowl. We are talking about those who make 200 or 300 bets a year. The serious sports bettor looking to make a living or at least make a decent profit on his efforts will bet on at least 5 to 10 games each week and more when football season overlaps basketball season. So how much can a serious sport earn by betting on sports throughout the year? Answer: How big is your available bankroll to start with?
The expectation of the novice or unsuspecting sports bettor is invariably far above the realm of reality. This is due in part, as mentioned above, to outlandish advertising claims by some sports betting advisors and services. Claims of winning 70% or 80% of all your games, or that you can win 100 times your starting budget in a season…etc. Our example of a really good handicapper who can win 60% of his bets is very accurate, you can trust me on that… To prove this point, why is it that the world’s biggest soccer handicap contest ( The Super Contest), which is at the Las Vegas Hilton, and attracts some of the best handicappers from around the world, offers a $10,000.00 bonus to anyone who correctly chooses 63% or 66% (forgive me, but the exact number escapes me right now) during the contest. The contest requires each entry to pick 5 NFL games per week for 17 weeks. That’s a total of 85 games, meaning if someone could correctly pick 56 winners out of those 85 games, they would receive the 10K bonus. So you can see that the average Joe hitting 60% is quite an extraordinary feat.
Now here’s the reality of making money betting on sports… Let’s say you have a starting budget of say $1000.00 and you’re going to bet an average of 5 games per week. If you placed a $100.00 bet on each of your 5 games and made a total of, say, 200 bets during the year, you would have a total payout of $22,000.00. This includes the 10% commission that the books add to the bet. So if you place a bet of $100.00, you must put up $110.00 to win $100.00. This is sometimes called the “juice” or the “vig”. This is how bookmakers stay in business. They take a 10% discount on all losers’ bets, which is one of the reasons it’s hard to beat the books. They adjust the betting lines in order to keep the action in a game as close to 50-50 as possible… They keep the $10.00 of losing bets while the winner receives their $110.00 initial bet plus the $100.00 won. So if a book had, say, 100 bets at 100 each, which would be 10,000 bets on a game, and 50 of the bettors had side A and the other side B, this is the perfect scenario for the book, because they profit no matter who wins the game.
Let’s use our example of your $100.00 wager on 200 games over the course of a season, and let’s say you have a good handicap and can win 60% of those games… I should note here, you need to win at least 53% of those games to break even, only by Vig as mentioned above. Ok, you wagered a total of $22,000.00 during the season, at 60% you won 120 of those 200 games. You will receive $210.00 for each of the games you win (the $110.00 you put in plus the $100.00 you win), giving you a total return of $25,200.00, or a profit of $3,200.00 for the year… That’s the reality. Consider someone who wagers only $10.00 or $20.00 per game and expects to make a big profit and you will see that the reality is that you need a large starting budget to make a living from sports betting. Even with a $3,200.00 win, you certainly can’t consider that to be making a living… And again we assume that you are a “good” handicapper who picks winners at 60%.
Fortunately, most sports bettors are recreational or hobby players and not looking to make a living. Just seeing a small win at the end of the year can be very rewarding for them and fulfills their desire to increase the excitement of the game. For the past 16 years providing sports betting advice to my clients, it is gratifying to me when even a small player makes a small profit from my service… I have never failed to make a profit for my clients in the 16 years I have been in business… However, the reality is: you may not get rich.