Advances and projections of AFC Sur 2007
AFC South Division:
1) Indianapolis: The Colts will have a hard time repeating last year’s feat of winning it all, mostly because of their defense or lack thereof. Indianapolis possessed the worst run defense in the NFL last year, allowing an average of 173 yards per game, but was able to fill this glaring deficiency with a strong secondary defense, however free agent losses to versatile LB Cato June and Nick Harper and CB’s Jason David will hurt immensely if HC Tony Dungy can’t hook up suitable replacements.
Offensively, the loss of RB Dominic Rhodes to the Raiders means the team must find a backup for Joseph Addai, the Colts also lost the services of WR Brandon Stokley but were able to nab Anthony Gonzalez (Ohio State) with the 32nd overall pick of the NFL in the last years draft to fill their shoes hopefully as the teams #3 WR. Indianapolis is lucky to be in a relatively weak division that includes Houston and Tennessee, they are also lucky to play their toughest non-division games at home (New Orleans, Denver, Tampa, New England, and Kansas City), but they will have to travel to Carolina, San Diego and Baltimore. As long as QB Peyton Manning and WR Marvin Harrison stay healthy, this team can score on anyone, which means they can beat anyone just by outplaying them, expect the Colts to be in more shootouts this year. Projected record: 11-5
**Look to play IN the Colts in their September 16 visit to Tennessee, the Titans will have the Colts’ full attention on this matter due to the fact that Indianapolis lost to Tenny in the finals 17-20 last year while he was mired in funk that began by nearly losing to Buffalo in their home dome (a 17-16 win) and resulted in losing 3 of 4 games during this span. A look in the old history book reveals that these Colts have covered 9 of their last 10 ATS road games when they were playing with a vengeance!
2) Jacksonville: The Jags were 8-5 last year going down the stretch with three games to play and a playoff berth in the offing, but when the smoke cleared, they finished the season with a disappointing 8-8 record after losing those last three games to Tennessee, New England and Kansas City. Jacksonville finished last season with the No. 2 defense in the NFL and returns virtually every player on that side of the ball, the problem is with the offense that has HC Jack Del Rio in the dugout in case the Jags return to fall this year in a repeat performance. . This situation has prompted Del Rio to bring in former Arizona State head coach Dirk Koetter to serve as their offensive coordinator.
It will be up to Dirk Koetter to decide the battle between QB Byron Leftwich and David Garrard, in an odd move the team also brought in Tim Couch to add to the QB mix, Couch was the first overall pick in the 1999 draft by expansion Cleveland Kentucky Browns, but he never lived up to the hype and, in fact, has been out of football for the past three years since tearing his rotator cuff while with Green Bay. The Jags have some talent on offense and it will be up to Koetter how these players fit into the bigger picture of things to come.
The leagues scheduler didn’t take kindly to these Jags in that they are the only NFL team with a block of three consecutive road games on their schedule (in Tampa, New Orleans and Tennessee in successive weeks). Sandwiched between their two divisional games against the hated Colts, the determining factor for the Jags as a team this year will depend on what Dirk Koetter is capable of doing on offense. Projected record: 10-6
** Look to play IN the Jags in their season-opening game at home against the visiting Titans, Jacksonville will remember well that it was a 17-24 loss at Tennessee last season that started their 3-game losing streak to close out the year and You’ll want to use this game as a spell springboard to start your season off on the right foot.
The linemaker is very likely to make the Jags a huge home favorite against the visiting Titans, just like last season when the Jags closed as 9.5 favorites, however this year should produce the same result as last year when the Jags defeated the visiting Titans in the final 37-7, in fact, the Jags have won their last two home games against the Titans by a combined 77-20. It’s also nice to know that according to the old history book, these Jags have covered an incredible ATS 8 straight season opener!
3) Tennessee: The Titans finished the 2003 season with a 12-4 regular-season record, but their fall from grace was swift over the next two years as they posted a poor combined 9-23 mark. Tennessee was then forced to purge its 11-player veteran roster to satisfy salary cap restrictions, so the rebuilding process began, this process continued along with the sacking of quarterback Steve McNair and the selection of quarterback vince young field
The Titans inserted Young as the starting QB after an 0-5 start last year, while the Titans finished the season with an 8-8 record, in fact they were very lucky to have won 4 of their 8 wins by 3. points. or less. Last offseason, the Titans dropped their roster of RB Travis Henry, WR Drew Bennett and Bobby Wade, TE Erron Kinney, LB Peter Simon, and also lost the services of CB Pacman Jones, who was suspended for a year after multiple run-ins with Law. HC Jeff Fisher is obviously trying to rebuild from the ground up through the draft that included 10 picks last April, unfortunately for Fisher, he may not be around to see if these picks work or not if his team has another 4 win season. Projected record: 4-12
** Look to play AGAINST these Titans in their season-opening road game in Jacksonville, the Jags will well remember that it was an embarrassing 17-24 loss at Tennessee last season that started their 3-game losing streak to close out the year and they will want to use this game as a springboard of spells to start the season off on the right foot.
The linemaker is very likely to make the Jags a huge home favorite against the visiting Titans, just like last season when the Jags closed as 9.5 favorites, however this year should produce the same result as last year when the Jags defeated the visiting Titans in the final 37-7, in fact, the Jags have won their last two home games against the Titans by a combined 77-20. It’s also nice to know that according to the old history book, these Jags have covered an incredible ATS 8 straight season opener!
4) Houston: The Texans hired longtime Denver offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak to take over head coaching duties from ousted HC Dom Capers last year and there was an immediate 4-win improvement over the previous season However, in truth 3 of Houston’s 6 victories last year came by a combined 8 points. HC Kubiak will be hard-pressed to win 6 games or more this year due to two main factors;
HAS). Houston did little to nothing to improve a porous offensive line that allowed 42 sacks last year, which is an average of 2.63 QB takedowns per game. B). Playing behind that poured offensive line will be newly acquired QB Matt Schaub and newly acquired RB Ahman Green from Packer. Schaub has a career grand total of 163 passes while RB Ahman Green is entering his 10th NFL season. So he asks, how long will this inexperienced quarterback and his aging RB last behind an offensive line that, on average, has allowed a staggering 3.4 sacks per game since joining the NFL? Projected record: 4-12
**Look to play AGAINST these Texans when the Chiefs come to town on September 9 for a season opener, Houston has too many loose pieces lying around to complete their opening day puzzle, I would expect a pretty low scoring game like The Chiefs plan to hit the ball with RB Larry Johnson in front of a Houston defense that ranked 20th in the league last year. On the other hand, Kansas City should be an improved bunch on the defensive side of the ball and will be facing what amounts to a rookie starting QB in Matt Schaub. A look in the old history book reveals that the outright winner in the Houston Texan games played in the month of September has also covered the broadcast published 15 of the last 16 times ATS, Go Chiefs!