How to Spot a Horse Racing Predictor Scam
I recently received an email from a new member of my betting advice service. He told me how he had been the victim of one of the oldest whistleblower scams in the world. Unfortunately, this type of scam is far too common, and in this case, you became the victim of a lady with little gambling experience. What is concerning is that for scammers to continue using these methods it means there must be an endless supply of unsuspecting people queuing up to be exploited.
I am writing this article in the hope that at least a few more people will realize what to look for.
The story begins with the typical junk mail that regularly lands on our floor mats. It contains incredible promises of great income for following betting tips of this type. As “proof” of such talent is an outstanding results page, of numerous horses winning at great prices.
Now, I myself guarantee a significant income to people who join my betting service. However, what I do offer any potential member is the opportunity to test my service first-hand, with a free trial. This informant was looking in advance for the membership fee for the first month, sent to an anonymous PO box.
So my first piece of advice would be “never send money to an informant unless you are satisfied with their credentials.” Request a proof of your service before agreeing to part with the money. If it says “no” then you haven’t lost anything.
Most of the time, you won’t find a way to contact the informant with this question: no phone number, no email address, just the anonymous PO box address. This desire to remain incommunicado should also tell you a lot!
Going back to the story of our friend the insider and his brilliant publicity copy: After sending a hefty check, the lady in question received a “hotline” phone number that she was advised to call every day for advice. I know what you may be thinking, but in this case it was not a premium rate number costing £ 5 per day to call. This is a trick that is used often, and everyone should be very careful with the default ‘090’ phone numbers, especially if they have already paid a membership fee.
After following the advice for several days, the results were mediocre, to say the least, and certainly did not come close to the high level illustrated by the brilliant marketing literature.
The following advice is cliché, but still true: “If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is!”
After about a week, this lady received another letter, telling her that if she wanted to know about a ‘sure winner’ at the Melbourne Cup in Australia, then she should call another number. When he called, he spoke to a gentleman who explained that in order to obtain details of the horse, he had to agree to put some money on it, on behalf of the informant. His excuse was that because he has been so successful, he has been banned from all bookmakers and finds it impossible to place bets personally.
The lady was asked to put down £ 100 for this informant, and whatever she could pay for herself. The horse in question, if we were to believe this informant’s exaggeration, “absolutely could not lose.”
You placed your money at your local sportsbook and you’ve already guessed what happened. In fact, he lost 250 pounds in total.
Two things to note here: First, the informant takes absolutely no risk in this transaction. If the horse loses, only you lose money. If he wins, then you are under pressure to send the scammer his share of the winnings. Second, let me assure you that there is no such thing as a “sure thing” in any career. Even more so in a great “signature” race like the Melbourne Cup: it is the most important race on the Australian horse racing calendar, and each and every runner will have entered the race with a chance to win.
This type of scam has even less credibility today. With the advent of betting exchanges, the downside of multiple bookmakers closing their accounts is now totally irrelevant. Companies like Betfair have nothing to do if you are a winning bettor, and they will never close your account.
Whenever you receive a set of “amazing” results from an informant, first ask if these results include ALL of the given selections. In other words, is the whistleblower trying to hide a loser who might detract from his results? The previous lesson also applies here: how easy is it to contact the informant, and how quickly and positively does he respond?
If the results are supposed to be complete, we can analyze them a little more: write down the total number of bets. This is the total invested. Let’s say by way of example that there are 50 bets; you would have invested 50 points.
Let’s say that when you add up all the claimed winners, the returns amount to 103 points. So you would have invested 50 points in 50 bets, which yielded 103 points for a profit of 53 points. Very impressive.
But now let’s get real! 53 profit points on a 50 point investment equals a return on investment of 206%. This is calculated by dividing the 103 points returned by the original 50 points invested.
Ask any professional bettor and they will tell you that a good return is 120%, very good is 130%, and anything above 140% is unsustainable or an outright fabrication. Personally, I am extremely happy when I achieve more than 130% ROI in a given month, and in most cases, I will only achieve around 120% to 125%.
To sum up,
1. Do not send money to an informant until they have proven your worth over a period of time or until someone you trust has personally recommended them.
2. Beware of any informant who hides behind an anonymous PO box number and is very difficult to contact. Do you answer your questions quickly and directly?
3. Be wary of any service that involves calling a premium rate number for your information. You should be aware that you are likely to spend more than £ 100 each month on phone calls BEFORE you have started making a profit.
4. Never be fooled by anyone who says you have a “sure” winner that you cannot lose. Every horse, in every race, has a chance of winning, so no horse is 100% sure of winning.
5. Never be seduced into placing on behalf of an informant. His excuse that you cannot place bets personally is a total fallacy with the advent of betting exchanges, and it just means that he expects you to take all the risk when placing your bets.
6. Don’t be afraid to question the tipsters’ results, never take them at face value.
7. Do forecasters claim that the return on investment is realistic? Anything over 150% should be treated with suspicion and is most likely an exaggeration.
8. If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is.