2012 best overrated fantasy football players
One of the keys to winning a fantasy football league is the ability to recognize overrated players and injury risks and ignore those players at draft time. Slumpers are NFL players who tend to be drafted in the top 3 at their position and produce similar players drafted in double-digit rounds. These players are also known as “Draft Killers”, especially if they are first or second round players. The key to winning your fantasy football league is finding players who consistently produce. You may be able to offset a Slumper with a Sleeper, but deadlifting is best avoided if you can see any signs of a possible fall. However, there are times when the signs are not present. Who expected DeAngelo Williams to drop from 20 TDs in 2009 to 8 TDs in 2010 or Peyton Hillis to drop from 1,650 total yards and 13 TDs in 2010 to 700 total yards and 3 TDs in 2011? Below are the top overrated fantasy football players of 2012 by position.
2012 fantasy football pajamas
Quarterback: Matt Schaub (Houston) – The Texans showed they could win last year just by hitting the ball on the ground, even with a healthy Matt Schaub. There’s no reason to deviate from that plan in 2012. The Arian Foster/Ben Tate tandem will be back in full swing this year. I know Andre Johnson is still on the team, but he and Schaub are coming off injury-plagued seasons. Additionally, Houston has done nothing to improve its receiving corps around Johnson. I have no idea why Schaub is regularly drafted in the 6-7 round, well ahead of Carson Palmer, Ben Roethlisberger and Jay Cutler. I took Schaub out of my Top 10 QB this year and would only select him as a backup at this point. That can be tough, but it will kill a team that reaches it.
RB: Frank Gore (San Fran) – Gore always carries the stigma of injuries, even though he played 16 games last season and produced rock-solid numbers. However, Alex Smith proved comfortable in Jim Harbaugh’s system last year, so the reins will loosen this year. Additionally, San Fran signed Randy Moss and Mario Manningham to complement Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis. Additionally, the Niners signed goal-line hitter Brandon Jacobs and drafted LaMichael James. San Francisco will distribute the ball judiciously and Gore’s numbers will suffer for it. It won’t produce round numbers 2-3 this year, so stay away.
WR: Roddy White (Atlanta) – White has long been underappreciated in every league except PPR, as he consistently gets 100-plus receptions a year. However, he has become more and more inconsistent with his production and his Drops are increasing. I expect that trend to be more obvious this year as the Falcons trade Julio Jones as their No. 1 receiver and make more plays for Harry Douglas and Jacquizz Rodgers. I’m not saying White will drop a lot, but you certainly don’t want your second or third round pick to disappear entirely in certain games, especially in weeks 14-16.
TE: Tony Gonzalez (Atlanta) – Tony G has been playing at an elite level for much longer than he expected. I think you are going to see the beginning of a downward slope that will take you to retirement in the next two years. His overall numbers have been flat during his career, but times are changing in Atlanta and, at 36, Tony G’s career, like his speed, is coming to an end. There are plenty of other tight ends you can count on.
D: Baltimore Ravens – The Ravens surprised me with another strong season in 2011, but they are clearly on the decline. Ed Reed and Ray Lewis are slowing down as age catches up with them and Terrell Suggs’ absence this year (torn Achilles tendon) will hurt a lot more than people realize. Unless your league places very little value on defensive position, I’d only catch them if they stayed in double-digit rounds.
K: Adam Vinatieri (Indy) – Actually, any kicker drafted before the last 2 rounds is overrated. The best way to gauge a kicker for the draft is by his bye week. Take one kicker and one kicker only and then pick one that’s available with the last week off so he can forget about that position for as long as possible. However, you can omit Vinatieri. He still has a strong and precise leg. He just won’t be able to use it much to score this year.
Other overrated fantasy football players to consider avoiding (this list could be quite long if we included major injuries, recent DUIs, and domestic issues): Any SEA QB or WR until the dust settles, RB Adrian Peterson (MINN), Any DET RB until one looks healthy, RB Shonn Green (NYJ), WR Kenny Britt (TENN), Any MIA WR all season.