Common mistakes in sports betting: tips and recommendations to follow
It is difficult to make a profit in sports betting, even when no mistake is made. But if you make mistakes, be it betting or handicapping, then it becomes almost impossible to make a profit. Many people rely on luck to try to win at sports betting, but it is much better to use the right talent and strategies. And of course not to make mistakes.
So let’s take a look at the most common things people do wrong.
Mistakes made with a disability
Not remembering which team is the best
It is quite possible to overanalyze many small details, for example psychological factors or statistical data. With all of this on your mind, it’s easy to overlook the obvious, which team is the best. When you look at the winning percentages of NFL and NBA teams, they are usually the ones with the best scoring records. Of course they don’t always win, some situations will definitely affect their game, but the best team usually overcomes a lot of problems. The best team will not always win, but everyone is always the best to bet on.
Becoming too dependent on technical trends
It is often said in the financial world that just because a stock or fund has performed well in the past does not mean it will do so in the future. But it is also true for sports betting. The performance of the team in the past is very interesting, but that does not mean that it is a predictor of how they will perform in the future. You must be careful when you are given information about a trend, it may be that someone has made a theory to fit past results, and that theory may not predict future results. People who have successfully analyzed sports betting will look at each game individually rather than relying on a trend.
Doing too much of the last game
A winning game could easily be a fluke, there could be a good reason for one team to play higher than usual or another team to play worse. When considering how to place your bets, it’s wise to review a few games rather than just one, especially if that game is unusually high stakes or worse than other times. We all have good days and bad days, the same goes for sports teams.
Considering only the strength of the offensive team
Championships are won by defense, it’s a cliché, but it’s become a cliché because it’s often the truth. If the other team can’t score then they can’t win. While it’s great if your team can score some points, it can easily lose if the other side scores more, because your team has a weak defense. Many sports bettors seem to ignore defense and bet only on teams that score. But take a look at some winning teams, for example, the Pistons’ NBA title, the Patriots’ third Super Bowl, and the World Series victory in red socks. So the message is don’t just look at the offense, look at the defense.
Being overly concerned about injuries
In a small team, for example basketball, each individual player has a great value for the team. In a large team, for example football, each individual player has a smaller value in proportion to the team. What this means is that if a star player on a basketball team is injured, it matters more than if a star player on a football team is injured. But the bookmakers know this, so they quickly adjust the lines when there has been an injury, so punters are not likely to make much money here. You have to be careful not to put too much emphasis on an absence, a team will often go into a game without their key player showing a lot more effort and a lot more determination to do well, especially from the person who is replacing the key player.
Not getting the right balance between talent and motivation
Just because the team is highly motivated to win doesn’t mean they have the talent to do so. In fact, sometimes motivation and the way players can psych themselves up can be detrimental. If players act aggressively, they are much more likely to commit fouls or make plays that result in penalties. You should also remember that the most talented players or teams will also have high motivation to show that they still have talent, so it is not easy to say who will be more motivated the team that won easily last year all the team that fought hard but lost.
It is important to choose the correct side in sports betting. After all, you won’t win by choosing the wrong team! However, it is also very important to have solid betting techniques and principles. Professional players are often known to be great at betting, even if they are not so good at handicaps. The trick is to learn to bet.
Sports betting mistakes
Putting in more money than you can afford to lose
Bookmakers like punters to win a cut of what’s on it, that keeps them playing and paying! A player with no money will not place any bets. A strategy or plan that you stick to in a disciplined way is the best way to use your funds. A well-respected plan to use is the “Kelly Criterion,” named for its author, John Kelly. The way this works is that on each spin you bet a percentage of your available bankroll. For example, if you have $1,000 available and decide to use 10% on every spin, the first bet you would make would be $100. If that play results in a win, you will now have $1100 and your next bet will be $110. However, if that play results in a loss, you now have $900 available and your next bet will be $90. When staking breaches, using these plans means you won’t go broke.
Get emotional and get even
If you want to be successful in sports betting, you need more discipline than emotion. You will have losing bets and you will have losing days overall. But it will only make things worse if you try to use a bet to win back a previous bet. Don’t get excited and promise yourself that this bet will match you for a previous bet.
Betting too much money on one game
Every game or play is either worth betting on or not worth betting on. Therefore, professionals in the game will bet approximately the same amount on each spin. Players who consistently make money have seen plenty of times where freak accidents or freak luck, or bad decisions by officials can change the way the game plays out. Do you remember the 1990 Breeders Cup Sprint? Everyone knew which horse was going to win, until that horse jumped over a shadow that allowed his rival to beat him right at the finish line. Thinking that he has the best bet or a lock can cause him to bet too much on that game. Worse still is when you try to win back previous losses, or retaliate by betting too much. If you want to bet a little more on a game, do it when you’re on a winning streak, not a losing one.
Choosing a game because it’s televised
If you want to make money from this, you need to choose your bets for solid reasons, not just because they’re on TV! If you want to bet on the game because you’re watching it, that’s fine, but it should be a recreational bet, not part of your serious strategy.
Choosing too few games to place a bet
To the uninformed, it may seem like the best way to get ahead is to carefully choose where you will bet and limit your exposure. However, this will make luck a much bigger factor in your success than it needs to be. Luck is out there, bad decisions by officials, weird luck, freak accidents. But to minimize the impact of these, you need to spread out your money, and to do so, you need to play a lot of games.